Included simulations
x
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim1
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim2
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim3
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim4
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim5
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim6
Variation between simulations
dayoff worktime
sim 1 Sunday Saturday 9:00 to 17:00
sim 2 Sunday Wednesday 9:00 to 17:00
sim 3 Sunday Wednesday Saturday 9:00 to 19:00
sim 4 Sunday Wednesday Friday Saturday 9:00 to 22:20
sim 5 Sunday 9:00 to 15:40
sim 6 9:00 to 14:43
Other settings (identical between the simulations):
defaults
samples.per.hour 2
days 200
people 5000
integration.method RK4
nighttime.HPA.axis.impulses.population.mean 8
shape.population.distribution.nighttime.HPA.axis.impulses 1
time.of.awakening 7:00
distribution.type.used uniform
worktime.HPA.axis.impulses.population.mean 6
shape.population.distribution.worktime.HPA.axis.impulses 3
uniform.distribution.range 1 to 50
day.stress.anticipation YES
HPA.scaling.factor 2.194
delay.cortisol.response.hour 0.5
cortisol.halflife.M.hour 1.333
cortisol.halflife.SD.hour 0.133
threshold.allostatic.load 20
recovery.factor.dynamic.load 0.6
disease.threshold 400
saved.days 40 80 120 160 200
sampled.people 2792 2126 155 705 3317
Evaluations:
preptime simtime filemergetime recovery aloadratio sickratio
sim 1 0 min 26.176 min 2.651 min 0.580364 0.7946 0.5606
sim 2 0 min 30.645 min 2.835 min 0.582378 0.7926 0.5586
sim 3 0 min 124.58 min 2.692 min 0.500536 0.8416 0.6368
sim 4 0 min 28.77 min 2.471 min 0.583226 0.8926 0.7240
sim 5 0 min 106.763 min 2.801 min 0.819352 0.7418 0.4660
sim 6 0 min 28.155 min 3.038 min 0.947537 0.6894 0.3918

Actual distribution of night- and worktime HPA-axis impulses:

Cohort data Miller et al. (2017).
Simulated cortisol profiles since awakening (population averages)
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Night time cortisol profiles Clow et al. (2009).
Average cortisol profiles since midnight
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24h cortisol profiles of 17 individuals from Hosseinichimeh et al. (2015).

Sample of seven days showing variation on all model variables from 5 random simulated people

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odds-ratio of developing disease for varying stressor frequencies

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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   23.37152   19.72713   27.90916
##   80   22.15566   18.83531   26.25629
##  120   23.15340   19.64135   27.50119
##  160   24.59639   20.78243   29.33954
##  200   27.07361   22.72298   32.52665
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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   23.91247   20.14612   28.61211
##   80   22.65223   19.22995   26.88610
##  120   23.60321   19.99789   28.07322
##  160   24.54906   20.74522   29.27890
##  200   26.23154   22.06368   31.44214
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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   39.97858   32.62711   49.51276
##   80   42.51649   34.56902   52.86005
##  120   55.60517   44.24921   70.75403
##  160   64.46929   50.64431   83.18683
##  200   70.66666   55.05136   92.01081
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##  day         OR       lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ----------  ---------
##   40   112.8589    84.85742   152.7415
##   80   163.9477   118.72704   231.1585
##  120   218.7489   153.68443   318.7627
##  160   209.7988   147.57030   305.2281
##  200   206.9991   145.44562   301.4185
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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   13.65084   11.79201   15.89850
##   80   13.53488   11.80769   15.60028
##  120   13.89669   12.13334   16.00370
##  160   14.83782   12.91966   17.13784
##  200   14.88877   12.96901   17.18962
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##  day         OR      lower       upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ----------
##   40   8.196996   7.171582    9.418343
##   80   8.478146   7.524455    9.593625
##  120   9.302520   8.256729   10.525881
##  160   9.417341   8.373425   10.635957
##  200   9.518495   8.468752   10.743018
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between simulations - relative predictions about people becoming sick

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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        1
## vs.sim.2    0.9919175   0.9166030   1.0734180        2
## vs.sim.3    1.3742450   1.2683216   1.4891566        3
## vs.sim.4    2.0560631   1.8916889   2.2353037        4
## vs.sim.5    0.6839929   0.6321426   0.7400235        5
## vs.sim.6    0.5049228   0.4662252   0.5467337        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    0.9919175   0.9166030   1.0734180        1
## vs.sim.2    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        2
## vs.sim.3    1.3854428   1.2786818   1.5012642        3
## vs.sim.4    2.0728166   1.9071394   2.2534793        4
## vs.sim.5    0.6895663   0.6373064   0.7460400        5
## vs.sim.6    0.5090371   0.4700336   0.5511788        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    1.3742450   1.2683216   1.4891566        1
## vs.sim.2    1.3854428   1.2786818   1.5012642        2
## vs.sim.3    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        3
## vs.sim.4    1.4961401   1.3748048   1.6284574        4
## vs.sim.5    0.4977227   0.4593842   0.5391578        5
## vs.sim.6    0.3674183   0.3388158   0.3983284        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    2.0560631   1.8916889   2.2353037        1
## vs.sim.2    2.0728166   1.9071394   2.2534793        2
## vs.sim.3    1.4961401   1.3748048   1.6284574        3
## vs.sim.4    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        4
## vs.sim.5    0.3326712   0.3060399   0.3614933        5
## vs.sim.6    0.2455775   0.2257261   0.2670628        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    0.6839929   0.6321426   0.7400235        1
## vs.sim.2    0.6895663   0.6373064   0.7460400        2
## vs.sim.3    0.4977227   0.4593842   0.5391578        3
## vs.sim.4    0.3326712   0.3060399   0.3614933        4
## vs.sim.5    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        5
## vs.sim.6    0.7381988   0.6817906   0.7992064        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    0.5049228   0.4662252   0.5467337        1
## vs.sim.2    0.5090371   0.4700336   0.5511788        2
## vs.sim.3    0.3674183   0.3388158   0.3983284        3
## vs.sim.4    0.2455775   0.2257261   0.2670628        4
## vs.sim.5    0.7381988   0.6817906   0.7992064        5
## vs.sim.6    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        6

Appendix

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Time taken
## [1] "Simulation time [min]:"
## [1] "Rendering time [min]:"
## [1] 4
## [1] "Total time [min]:"
## [1] 4