Simulation output

Included simulations

x
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim1
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim2
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim3
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim4
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim5
simoutput/comp2019-01-22.11h41 work hour var first 6/sim6

Variation between simulations

	dayoff	worktime
sim 1	Sunday Saturday	9:00 to 17:00
sim 2	Sunday Wednesday	9:00 to 17:00
sim 3	Sunday Wednesday Saturday	9:00 to 19:00
sim 4	Sunday Wednesday Friday Saturday	9:00 to 22:20
sim 5	Sunday	9:00 to 15:40
sim 6		9:00 to 14:43

Other settings (identical between the simulations):

	defaults
samples.per.hour	2
days	200
people	5000
integration.method	RK4
nighttime.HPA.axis.impulses.population.mean	8
shape.population.distribution.nighttime.HPA.axis.impulses	1
time.of.awakening	7:00
distribution.type.used	uniform
worktime.HPA.axis.impulses.population.mean	6
shape.population.distribution.worktime.HPA.axis.impulses	3
uniform.distribution.range	1 to 50
day.stress.anticipation	YES
HPA.scaling.factor	2.194
delay.cortisol.response.hour	0.5
cortisol.halflife.M.hour	1.333
cortisol.halflife.SD.hour	0.133
threshold.allostatic.load	20
recovery.factor.dynamic.load	0.6
disease.threshold	400
saved.days	40 80 120 160 200
sampled.people	2792 2126 155 705 3317

Evaluations:

	simtime	filemergetime	recovery	aloadratio	sickratio
sim 1	26.176 min	2.651 min	0.580364	0.7946	0.5606
sim 2	30.645 min	2.835 min	0.582378	0.7926	0.5586
sim 3	124.58 min	2.692 min	0.500536	0.8416	0.6368
sim 4	28.77 min	2.471 min	0.583226	0.8926	0.7240
sim 5	106.763 min	2.801 min	0.819352	0.7418	0.4660
sim 6	28.155 min	3.038 min	0.947537	0.6894	0.3918

Actual distribution of night- and worktime HPA-axis impulses:

Cohort data Miller et al. (2017).

Simulated cortisol profiles since awakening (population averages)

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Night time cortisol profiles Clow et al. (2009).

Average cortisol profiles since midnight

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24h cortisol profiles of 17 individuals from Hosseinichimeh et al. (2015).

Sample of seven days showing variation on all model variables from 5 random simulated people

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odds-ratio of developing disease for varying stressor frequencies

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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   23.37152   19.72713   27.90916
##   80   22.15566   18.83531   26.25629
##  120   23.15340   19.64135   27.50119
##  160   24.59639   20.78243   29.33954
##  200   27.07361   22.72298   32.52665
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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   23.91247   20.14612   28.61211
##   80   22.65223   19.22995   26.88610
##  120   23.60321   19.99789   28.07322
##  160   24.54906   20.74522   29.27890
##  200   26.23154   22.06368   31.44214
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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   39.97858   32.62711   49.51276
##   80   42.51649   34.56902   52.86005
##  120   55.60517   44.24921   70.75403
##  160   64.46929   50.64431   83.18683
##  200   70.66666   55.05136   92.01081
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##  day         OR       lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ----------  ---------
##   40   112.8589    84.85742   152.7415
##   80   163.9477   118.72704   231.1585
##  120   218.7489   153.68443   318.7627
##  160   209.7988   147.57030   305.2281
##  200   206.9991   145.44562   301.4185
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##  day         OR      lower      upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ---------
##   40   13.65084   11.79201   15.89850
##   80   13.53488   11.80769   15.60028
##  120   13.89669   12.13334   16.00370
##  160   14.83782   12.91966   17.13784
##  200   14.88877   12.96901   17.18962
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##  day         OR      lower       upper
## ----  ---------  ---------  ----------
##   40   8.196996   7.171582    9.418343
##   80   8.478146   7.524455    9.593625
##  120   9.302520   8.256729   10.525881
##  160   9.417341   8.373425   10.635957
##  200   9.518495   8.468752   10.743018

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between simulations - relative predictions about people becoming sick

## 
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        1
## vs.sim.2    0.9919175   0.9166030   1.0734180        2
## vs.sim.3    1.3742450   1.2683216   1.4891566        3
## vs.sim.4    2.0560631   1.8916889   2.2353037        4
## vs.sim.5    0.6839929   0.6321426   0.7400235        5
## vs.sim.6    0.5049228   0.4662252   0.5467337        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    0.9919175   0.9166030   1.0734180        1
## vs.sim.2    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        2
## vs.sim.3    1.3854428   1.2786818   1.5012642        3
## vs.sim.4    2.0728166   1.9071394   2.2534793        4
## vs.sim.5    0.6895663   0.6373064   0.7460400        5
## vs.sim.6    0.5090371   0.4700336   0.5511788        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    1.3742450   1.2683216   1.4891566        1
## vs.sim.2    1.3854428   1.2786818   1.5012642        2
## vs.sim.3    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        3
## vs.sim.4    1.4961401   1.3748048   1.6284574        4
## vs.sim.5    0.4977227   0.4593842   0.5391578        5
## vs.sim.6    0.3674183   0.3388158   0.3983284        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    2.0560631   1.8916889   2.2353037        1
## vs.sim.2    2.0728166   1.9071394   2.2534793        2
## vs.sim.3    1.4961401   1.3748048   1.6284574        3
## vs.sim.4    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        4
## vs.sim.5    0.3326712   0.3060399   0.3614933        5
## vs.sim.6    0.2455775   0.2257261   0.2670628        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    0.6839929   0.6321426   0.7400235        1
## vs.sim.2    0.6895663   0.6373064   0.7460400        2
## vs.sim.3    0.4977227   0.4593842   0.5391578        3
## vs.sim.4    0.3326712   0.3060399   0.3614933        4
## vs.sim.5    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        5
## vs.sim.6    0.7381988   0.6817906   0.7992064        6
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##                    OR       lower       upper   versus
## ---------  ----------  ----------  ----------  -------
## vs.sim.1    0.5049228   0.4662252   0.5467337        1
## vs.sim.2    0.5090371   0.4700336   0.5511788        2
## vs.sim.3    0.3674183   0.3388158   0.3983284        3
## vs.sim.4    0.2455775   0.2257261   0.2670628        4
## vs.sim.5    0.7381988   0.6817906   0.7992064        5
## vs.sim.6    1.0000000   1.0000000   1.0000000        6

Appendix

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Time taken

## [1] "Simulation time [min]:"

## [1] "Rendering time [min]:"

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## [1] "Total time [min]:"

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Simulation output

Remco Benthem de Grave

Included simulations

Variation between simulations

Other settings (identical between the simulations):

Evaluations:

Actual distribution of night- and worktime HPA-axis impulses:

Cohort data Miller et al. (2017).

Simulated cortisol profiles since awakening (population averages)

Night time cortisol profiles Clow et al. (2009).

Average cortisol profiles since midnight

24h cortisol profiles of 17 individuals from Hosseinichimeh et al. (2015).

Sample of seven days showing variation on all model variables from 5 random simulated people

odds-ratio of developing disease for varying stressor frequencies

between simulations - relative predictions about people becoming sick

Appendix

Time taken